A week before the European elections, the first big step for the political parties in Romania before the upcoming presidential elections in winter, the "Meeting Point" show by Radu Tudor, aimed to discuss with two sociologists: Mirel Palada Marius Pieleanu the possible outcomes thereof.
PSD
Mirel Palada: Even more important than this measure is the way things progress from one moment to another. We see that the PSD, in alliance with the UNPR and the PC has settled quite well in people’s minds, thus going over the threshold of 40% and even more than that, it settled in people’s mind as the party which will win the elections. It is a very strong feeling comparable with that of the USL back in 2012. This does make a point about the manner in which the PSD stays in people’s mind as the descendant of the USL. Even the CSOP give them 38%, so even they have understood in the end. In a week we will see the PSD at little over 40%, despite the opposition’s rhetoric who will say they have 30 percent or less.
Marius Pieleanu: My feeling is that this alliance has got more than the naked eye can see. And without a serious alternative to this coalition, it has got an even bigger score than the one measured by phone, the one being displayed here today. There is a data relativity, this is not a pharmacy, as Mirel says, I believe the turnout will be really low. The well-organized parties, such as the PSD and the PDL, will score even better than the displayed scores.
PNL
Mirel Palada: There are three things to be said here. The difference that has to be understood here is the one between the voting intention and the voting itself. They say it will work. There are always slight variations and these differences have to do with the parties' organizational skills. The second comment, about the turnout, in the last European elections the turnout was below below 30%, we suspect that it will still be somewhere around 30%, marginally higher, we talk about 5 million, 5 million and a half of participants. PNL, 7-8 years ago was on the rise due to Crin Antonescu, it gave signs of making it into a big party. But there, once this man has exhausted himself, PNL returns to its usual score, around 17-18%, however below 20%.
Marius Pieleanu: Currently it does not seem like the breaking up of the USL was the right solution. Let’s wait for the voting day because the argument from the first intervention applies here as well. If voters are mobilized in a very good way, it might be an even bigger score than displayed here. I am assuming that it will be somewhere between 18-22%, the size of the Romanian liberalism. The party leader, being currently a little bit overshadowed, is now sanctioned. From 15% to 18% it is quite a difference and through the redistribution you can move over 20%. Normally, the best score, the closest to the truth should be the one of the PSD.
PDL & PMP
Mirel Palada: PDL has got a big problem. The fact that they are ties with the PMP and the other might be marginally better then they must convince their voters they are better too. Mobilization will count a lot and, historically, the PDL has proven an organizational prowess and they might get something more than the polls show in the actual vote. The only question is how many of the PDL voters will not move towards the PMP. We have a party, the PDL, which before Basescu’s arrival had a 12%, with his charisma and it climbed up to 30%. But there are signals in the polls now indicating that the party might split. In the people’s minds, half stuck with the PDL and half went to the PMP and to Basescu.
Marius Pieleanu: I am calculating the average and I suspect that they will reach 13-14%, I think it is closer to the truth. The PDL has always been favored in urban areas. This party does not exceed 2% in the villager’s voting intention. But with the urban areas, it is different. Note that these scores were calculated from the total voting population. The actual score, I think it is much smaller and I stand by my belief that this party will have an issue with crossing the 5% threshold. But it remains to be seen.