A week before the European elections, the first big step for the political parties in Romania before the upcoming presidential elections in winter, the "Meeting Point" show by Radu Tudor, aimed to discuss with two sociologists: Mirel Palada Marius Pieleanu the possible outcomes thereof.
When it comes to the voting intention for the candidates in the presidential elections, things look like this:
Victor Ponta / Crin Antonescu
Mirel Palada: Here it’s probably about the round 1, the options list matters a lot, if MRU, Udrea, Predoiu, etc, appear on it or not. I am referring to the survey, the way the question was addressed. The outcomes are placed within a context, I assume. In the Avangarde survey the options list may have been shorter. Here it gravitates around the opponents.
Marius Pieleanu: PNL is a party focusing on its leader, his attitude and his activity. If starting tomorrow Crin Antonescu appears in public every day and delivers speeches, the scores may double; it is a party that depends very much on its leader’s attitude. The PSD, at its lowest score has not dropped below 30%. PNL can easily go down to 13% or 20%. Here relies the score variations for Crin Antonescu. It is my opinion that we will have two main candidates, Victor Ponta and Crin Antonescu.
MRU / Cătălin Predoiu
Mirel Palada: It is rather about the poor differentiation of various candidates taking credit from Traian Basescu’s camp. MRU, by the mere fact that he was given power, even for a few months, has remained in people's minds as Basescu's successor. He will be fighting hard, PSD will make it into the second round, the battle will be fought here on the opposition.
Marius Pieleanu: I propose an exercise of practical politics. MRU has got a very good score. Who will bring these percentages in round 2 for him if he does not have a team to back him up? It's almost impossible. Only a very charismatic man could do this. Let’s not rush into labeling Predoiu with a poor score. But even with that score, in Crin Antonescu’s case the exit from government and the isolation resulted into decreasing trends, he clearly needs to change strategy.