The negative impact of the Volkswagen scandal about pollutant emissions from diesel cars on Romania should be limited to exports of components to Germany, which represents around 1% of GDP, 2.9% of total exports, according to an Erste analysis presented for the CEE region Mediafax.
"If the situation will worsen and will expand to other major automotive manufacturers in Germany or France, then a larger part of Romania's exports will be affected, including car kits and components", says the analysis by Erste.
However, Erste does not exclude a possible decrease in imports of cars in Romania, if the diesel cars emission crisis will worsen, which would reduce the gap between imports and exports contribution to growth.
According to Erste, the scandal will not have a big impact on car production in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) if it limits to VW diesels alone.
In CEE, the scandal’s expansion to other engines or other manufacturers will have temporary negative effects on the entire auto production in the region until new technologies are adopted.
CEE countries produced last year about 4 million vehicles of which one third under the brands VW, respectively Audi, Skoda, VW, Porsche, Seat.
The CEE region has an important contribution to European production of VW, every fourth car produced last year by the German group in the EU was produced in a CEE country .
If the scandal is limited to diesel engines VW Type EA 189, the impact on current production will likely be quite limited, as these engines are installed on new cars.
But further investigations will take place to verify if other engines are involved in influencing other producers pollution test results.
Meanwhile, the uncertainty about the demand after the serious damages incurred to the VW image, could result in a more conservative formation of inventories and investment in the short term.
The current scandal may also have a positive effect in the long term as it could accelerate the deployment of new technologies in the automotive industries , while CEE capabilities are necessary for mass production.